The Conservative Party is edging ever closer to a full-scale panic. The local elections were expected to be bad, but were worse than expected. Labour is struggling but its voters are turning to every party except the Tories, who have now slipped to fourth in some opinion polls. There is growing concern about the strategy and performance of Kemi Badenoch.
One can make strong arguments against any course of action. Remove Badenoch and the party looks like it has not escaped the psychodrama of the last decade. Keep her, and it looks as if the party is stuck with a dud. Move further to the right and give up on one part of its electoral coalition; move to the left and give up on the other. Merge with Reform? There is no reason to think that Nigel Farage would be up for that.
In cricketing terms, the Conservative Party is 105 for 5, still requiring 122 to avoid an innings defeat. The temptation, especially for those old enough to recall the 1981 Headingley Test (which, in the Tory party, is practically everyone), is to summon a new batsman to the crease to give it a bit of welly. The search is on for a political version of Ian “Beefy” Botham, a charismatic and carefree competitor who will repeatedly smite the ball into the stands and deliver a famous, and unlikely, victory.
There is, of course, an obvious candidate for this role, not least in the eyes of the said candidate. Wherever Tories converse, the talk is increasingly of the return of Boris Johnson. After all, the last time the Conservatives were fourth in the polls with Farage triumphant, Johnson replaced the party leader, made Farage an irrelevance and led the Tories to a landslide victory. Now, it is argued, is the time to repeat the trick.
But would Johnson be up for it again? Of course he would, if the odds favoured him. This was not someone who lost the premiership when he felt that his time was up or is content with being yesterday’s man.
He has always wanted to be seen as a great man which requires a great legacy. He has Brexit but no one seems terribly impressed by that and, in any event, he claims that it is under threat. As for his record as Prime Minister, he considers that he never really had a fair crack of the whip because of the pandemic. If he comes back, this time he will show them.
The motivation for his return is not the issue, but what about the method? This is where it gets difficult, and the speculation is wilder. There is talk of plots (“Gavin Williamson is on manoeuvres”, I am told but, then again, he always is) and a by-election in which Johnson will stand and win. But Badenoch might as well hand in her resignation and let Johnson stand as the Conservative candidate in a by-election. His arrival in the Commons would almost immediately result in her fall.
Nor is it clear if there is currently a constituency in the country where the Conservatives could be confident of victory. A by-election in which Johnson was a candidate would become a referendum on him, with the anti-Johnson vote consolidating behind one of the other parties. In seats where the Liberal Democrats are challengers, it would be Johnson’s record on Brexit that would be highlighted; where Reform is the main opponent, it would be his record on immigration.
This latter record is a particular vulnerability. The people to whom Johnson most appealed in 2019 are those most angry at the levels of net migration that resulted from his immigration policies. Defending his record here would surely be hopeless. He could accept responsibility, apologise and hope to move on – but Reform will be determined to prevent that from happening. It would be a great test of Johnson’s considerable communication skills to hear him come up with an argument as to why the man who substantially liberalised our immigration system is the right man to take on an anti-immigration party.
But even if Johnson can find a seat to fight and Badenoch lets him do so, and even if he wins that seat, and even if he can neutralise the attacks on him from Reform (and, for that matter, Labour) on his record on immigration, is he the right person to take the Conservative Party forward?
The case for is the one set out above. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and now is the time for a big hitter. But such moves rarely work, which is partly why we remember when they do.
In this case, the chances of success are remote. If the Conservatives want to be for the voters who are fed up with the political class and want a party promising change (albeit undefined and largely unrealistic), Johnson has had his chance. This was part of his appeal in 2019 but three years later he left office unpopular and distrusted by many of those very voters. Farage, uncontaminated by experience in office, has the advantage.
If, in contrast, the Conservatives finally recognise that they should once again aspire to be the party of the responsible, pragmatic, and competent, Johnson is the person (alongside Liz Truss) they should define themselves against, not elect as leader. Given the party’s recent record, appealing to those voters will not be easy for the Tories but choosing to back Johnson would make that task impossible. Bringing back Johnson would make a bad situation worse.
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