2 June 2025

Poland has chosen the politics of reaction

This presidential election shows a country irreconcilably split between its liberal and conservative halves.

The victory of the nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki in the Polish presidential election by a mere 0.9 per cent is proof of a country cleaved in two. But, though Polish politics is too frequently read through stereotype in the Anglophone media, this result has recognisable meaning: a narrow victory for the reactionary right.

Nawrocki’s term is due to start on 6 August 2025. And most of his support came from south-east Poland, and in the voivodeships (the 16 provinces the country is divided into) that fall by the Ukrainian and Belarusian borders. Nawrocki’s rival, the Civil Coalition party’s Rafal Trzaskowski, won the majority of the vote in 10 voivodeships in comparison to Nawrocki’s six. But the Law and Justice-backed Nawrocki won a landslide victory in the Subcarpathian voivodeship, the country’s most south-easterly point, tipping the scales. Some smaller towns in the Lublin and Lesser Poland voivodeships bordering Subcarpathia, such as Godziszów and Chrzanów, cast over 94 per cent of their votes for Nawrocki. Even within these areas though, the fierce split between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki could be felt, dividing neighbouring towns and villages.

So what will this mean for the electorate? Nawrocki’s marginal win came as a surprise to the Polish media, especially amid his numerous alleged scandals – including participating in the 2009 football brawl in Gdansk, accusations of fraud and of connections to underworld figures and the world of prostitution – all of which he has denied. Yet, it seems these accusations did not taint his image as the “embodiment of traditional, patriotic values”, as he is often described by his supporters. The traditional values in question are characterised by opposition towards LGBTQIA+ visibility, abortion and immigration.

Nawrocki’s lack of political experience combined with his positions on cultural issues could have a destabilising effect on Poland’s domestic politics and isolate millions of Polish citizens. Prime minister Donald Tusk’s progressive reform programme will undoubtably be met by presidential vetoes, as was the case under the sitting president, Andrzej Duda. The advisory firm Colliers estimates that the cost of Nawrocki’s campaign promises could surpass 50 billion zloty (£1bn) in a country which already operates at a multi-billion-pound deficit. The Nawrocki win could also potentially limit access to EU funds, which will have a drastic impact on the economy.

Currently, Nawrocki heads the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), a Polish state research institute in charge of education and archives which has promoted nationalist historical narratives. The IPN also exercises investigative, prosecution and lustration powers within its two prosecution service components (in the former Eastern Bloc, lustration refers to the scrutinising of public officials for their past collaboration with the communist secret police). In 2018 the IPN adopted the wording of the Amendment to the Act of the Institute of National Remembrance to include “protecting the reputation of the Republic of Poland and the Polish Nation”. The Amendment – since partly repealed – criminalised attributing responsibility for the Holocaust to Poland or the Polish nation and addressed crimes against “Polish citizens” by “Ukrainian nationalists”.

Nawrocki’s own nationalist efforts, including the toppling of monuments to the Soviet Red Army, has led him to being put on Russia’s wanted list, as certain Russian outlets were quick to point out in their presidential coverage. Beyond Poland, Nawrocki’s presidency can be expected to have a negative impact on international relations. His eight-point declaration to block Ukraine’s accession to Nato could have an immense effect on the ongoing peace process (it also probably what swung Poland’s Ukraine-bordering voters behind him), while his policies on energy could hinder the EU’s climate change policies.

Backed by Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán, Nawrocki’s traditionalist agenda managed to give the Law and Justice-backed candidate a slight advantage, but it comes at a great cost. Poland could well be about to sacrifice its place as a key player on the European stage. And internally Nawrocki’s victory represents an ongoing stand-off between two nations, one liberal and another traditionalist, which all of Europe can recognise.